Thanksgiving 2025: What Your Holiday Dinner Will Really Cost This Year

With Thanksgiving just days away, Americans are facing a familiar but unwelcome headline: holiday dinner will cost more this year—again. Rising food prices, supply-chain pressures, and ongoing poultry industry challenges are reshaping what families can expect when they head to the grocery store this week.

According to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, food-at-home prices remain elevated across categories, and poultry—especially turkey—has seen some of the steepest increases in recent months (USDA Food Price Outlook). Meanwhile, the American Farm Bureau Federation, which publishes the gold-standard annual cost analysis of a traditional Thanksgiving meal, has already warned that 2025’s feast may be one of the priciest on record (AFBF Thanksgiving Cost Survey).

Here’s what’s actually driving the prices—and what families should expect at checkout.

Turkey Prices: Higher, but Not for the Reasons You Think

Turkeys have had a rough decade. Avian influenza outbreaks, fluctuating feed costs, and labor shortages have all played a part. But this year, experts say the primary driver behind turkey price increases is the cost of production—not supply collapse.

The USDA’s poultry market update shows wholesale turkey prices rising by 7–12% year-over-year, reflecting higher feed, transportation, and processing costs. While avian flu cases have not returned to their devastating 2022 levels, farmers are still operating with narrower margins and higher input expenses.

The good news? The availability of whole birds appears stable. The bad news? Retailers are unlikely to offer the deep holiday discounts shoppers remember from pre-2020.

Side Dishes Are No Better: Produce and Dairy Prices Climb

Even if turkey prices stabilized tomorrow, the rest of the meal would still strain budgets.

• Potatoes, onions, sweet potatoes: Weather swings in key growing states have pushed wholesale produce prices upward, according to forecasts from NOAA’s climate division showing significant heat stress across the Midwest and Northwest during growing season (NOAA Climate Data).

• Milk, butter, and cream: Dairy remains one of the most volatile categories. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports year-over-year increases in butter and cream pricing tied to both demand and reduced production capacity in certain regions (BLS Inflation Data).

• Canned goods: Aluminum prices and transportation costs continue to nudge up the price of staples like pumpkin purée and cranberry sauce.

Even dinner rolls aren’t immune: wheat futures have been erratic due to global supply disruptions triggered by extreme weather and geopolitical tensions.

Inflation Isn’t the Whole Story

It’s easy to blame the rising price tag solely on inflation, but economists say this year’s Thanksgiving cost surge reveals deeper issues within the supply chain.

A recent report from The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City highlights that food producers are still dealing with lingering post-pandemic operational changes, increased equipment costs, and labor shortages across processing facilities (Kansas City Fed Ag Report).

In short, it’s not just that prices are higher—it’s that every step required to bring Thanksgiving food to the table is more expensive than it used to be. And those costs have nowhere to go but downstream to the consumer.

Regional Differences Are Widening

For years, Thanksgiving dinner costs varied only slightly from state to state. This year, the gap is widening.

AAA’s gas price projections for Thanksgiving weekend show significant regional disparities, and transportation costs directly affect grocery prices (AAA Gas Prices). States with higher diesel costs often see steeper grocery markups during the holidays.

Additionally:

• States dependent on imported produce are paying more

• Rural regions experiencing store closures have fewer low-cost options

• Urban areas with high labor costs are seeing steeper dairy and bakery price jumps

This means your Thanksgiving dinner could cost 15–20% more depending on your ZIP code.

Will Black Friday Grocery Sales Help?

Not much.
Retail analysts from NielsenIQ say major grocery chains have dialed back aggressive holiday promotions due to tighter margins and unpredictable demand (NIQ Market Research).

Some stores are offering “loss leader” turkeys—ultra-cheap birds meant to get shoppers through the door—but these promotions are far less common than in years past.

Consumers hoping to score a heavily discounted dinner may find the deals far less generous than they remember.

How Much Will the Average Thanksgiving Dinner Cost?

While the American Farm Bureau Federation’s official 2025 figure won’t be released until the week before the holiday, early economic models suggest the average cost of a traditional dinner for ten people will likely land between $75 and $92, depending on region.

For comparison:

• 2023 average: $61.17

• 2024 estimated range: $68–$78

• 2025 trending: highest in the Farm Bureau’s 38-year history

That rise is not dramatic on a per-person basis—but for families already feeling financial pressure, it matters.

What Shoppers Can Do

Experts recommend:

• Buying nonperishables early

• Shopping store brands

• Comparing prices across multiple local stores

• Watching for mid-week markdowns instead of relying on weekend sales

• Considering frozen turkeys, which remain significantly cheaper than fresh

Inflation may be easing across some categories, but Thanksgiving remains an outlier—and 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging year for holiday budgets.